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Market for New Retail Space

(net added square feet means "supportable")

(this is not a measure of development activity, it is an estimate of potential)

RETAIL SALES

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Disposable Personal Income 78263 77183 76053 74948 73843 72806 71561 70502 69348 68266 67137 71512 71136 71018 70854 70971 71395 71630 71983 72265 72430 72924 73394 73959 74523 75205 74970 74806 74641 74641 74453 73959 74217 74147 74076 73959 73606 73347 73065 72806 72712
Annual Change in Disp. PI 78263 -1080 -1130 -1105 -1105 -1037 -1245 -1059 -1154 -1082 -1129 4375 -376 -118 -164 117 424 235 353 282 165 494 470 565 564 682 -235 -164 -165   -188 -494 258 -70 -71 -117 -353 -259 -282 -259 -94
Retail Sales 44375 42775 40901 40479 38849 38391 37398 35441 34542 33921 32810 33696 33270 33215 33138 33193 33391 33501 33666 33798 33876 34107 34326 34591 34854 35173 35063 34987 34910 34910 34822 34591 34711 34679 34645 34591 34426 34304 34173 34051 34007
Annual Change in Ret.Sls. 44375 -1600 -1874 -422 -1631 -458 -993 -1956 -899 -621 -1112 887 -426 -55 -77 55 198 110 165 132 77 231 220 264 264 319 -110 -77 -77   -88 -231 121 -33 -33 -55 -165 -121 -132 -121 -44

CYCLICAL ADJUSTMENT

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Retail Sales (adjusted) 44375 42775 40901 40479 38849 38391 37398 35441 35173 35173 35173 35173 35173 35173 35173 35173 35173 35173 35173 35173 35173 35173 35173 35173 35173 35173 35063 34987 34910 34910 34822 34711 34711 34679 34645 34591 34426 34304 34173 34051 34007
Ann. Change Ret.Sls(adj) 44375 -1600 -1874 -422 -1631 -458 -993 -1956 -268                                   -110 -77 -77   -88 -110   -33 -33 -55 -165 -121 -132 -121 -44

GFA REQUIRED

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Sales Per Square Foot 300 288 286 289 291 294 299 302 303 301 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300
Gross Floor Area (GFA) 147980 148384 142806 139870 133455 130600 125000 117215 116128 116662 117245 117245 117245 117245 117245 117245 117245 117245 117245 117245 117245 117245 117245 117245 117245 117245 116878 116623 116365 116365 116072 115704 115704 115595 115484 115302 114752 114348 113908 113505 113358

VACANCY & DEMOLITION

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Demolition                                                                                  
Vacant GFA 7788 7810 7516 7362 7024 6874 6579 6169 6112 6140 6171 6171 6171 6171 6171 6171 6171 6171 6171 6171 6171 6171 6171 6171 6171 6171 6151 6138 6124 6124 6109 6090 6090 6084 6078 6069 6040 6018 5995 5974 5966
GFA including Vacancy 155769 156194 150322 147232 140479 137473 131578 123384 122240 122802 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123030 122761 122490 122490 122181 121794 121794 121679 121563 121371 120791 120366 119904 119478 119324
Vacancy Rate (x1000) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

SPACE REQUIREMENT

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GFA 155769 156194 150322 147232 140479 137473 131578 123384 122240 122802 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123415 123030 122761 122490 122490 122181 121794 121794 121679 121563 121371 120791 120366 119904 119478 119324
Acres 16 16 15 15 14 14 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

ANNUAL MARKET CHANGE

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GFA 155769 425 -5872 -3090 -6752 -3006 -5895 -8194 -1145 563 613                               -386 -269 -271   -309 -387   -115 -117 -192 -579 -425 -463 -425 -154
Acres 16   -1   -1   -1 -1                                                                  


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