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PBC Economic Model: Work in Process

Market for New Office Space

(net added square feet means "supportable")

(this is not a measure of development activity, it is an estimate of potential) (PBC K)

EMPLOYMENT

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jobs 75209.8 81275.79 84464.56 90103.55 99088.84 106531.97 113615.67 122806.91 128795.73 135695.83 138985.45 136255.34 136517.66 141625.65 148977.58 157377.99 166194.89 175048.1 184312.35 194293.11 204783.02 215775.29 227497.26 236006.34 244683.11 253440.49 262291.75 271315.61 280503.13 289872.69 299354.13 306644.07 313935.01 321224.95 328515.89 335804.89 343369.86 350934.84 358499.01 366064.06 369988.63
New jobs (ann. change) 75209.8 6065.99 3188.77 5638.99 8985.3 7443.13 7083.7 9191.25 5988.82 6900.1 3289.62 -2730.1 262.32 5107.99 7351.93 8400.42 8816.9 8853.22 9264.25 9980.76 10489.91 10992.27 11721.97 8509.09 8676.77 8757.38 8851.26 9023.87 9187.52 9369.57 9481.44 7289.94 7290.94 7289.94 7290.94 7289 7564.97 7564.98 7564.17 7565.05 3924.58

CYCLICAL ADJUSTMENT

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jobs affecting space 75209.8 81275.79 84464.56 90103.55 99088.84 106531.97 113615.67 122806.91 128795.73 135695.83 136255.34 136255.34 136517.66 141625.65 148977.58 157377.99 166194.89 175048.1 184312.35 194293.11 204783.02 215775.29 227497.26 236006.34 244683.11 253440.49 262291.75 271315.61 280503.13 289872.69 299354.13 306644.07 313935.01 321224.95 328515.89 335804.89 343369.86 350934.84 358499.01 366064.06 369988.63
Annual change 75209.8 6065.99 3188.77 5638.99 8985.3 7443.13 7083.7 9191.25 5988.82 6900.1 559.52   262.32 5107.99 7351.93 8400.42 8816.9 8853.22 9264.25 9980.76 10489.91 10992.27 11721.97 8509.09 8676.77 8757.38 8851.26 9023.87 9187.52 9369.57 9481.44 7289.94 7290.94 7289.94 7290.94 7289 7564.97 7564.98 7564.17 7565.05 3924.58

GFA REQUIRED

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Square Feet / Employee 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250
Gross floor area (GFA) 18,802,450 20,307,536.25 21,135,321.25 22,532,908.75 24,427,850 26,038,041.25 27,821,868.75 29,741,965 31,240,538.75 33,018,241.25 33,850,693.75 33,901,852.5 34,123,292.5 35,421,676.25 37,247,393.75 39,347,697.5 41,548,721.25 43,762,425 46,078,287.5 48,573,277.5 51,196,355 53,944,222.5 56,874,913.75 59,001,785 61,170,777.5 63,360,121.25 65,573,336.25 67,828,902.5 70,125,781.25 72,468,172.5 74,838,532.5 76,661,017.5 78,483,752.5 80,306,237.5 82,128,972.5 83,951,222.5 85,842,465 87,733,710 89,624,751.25 91,516,013.75 92,497,157.5

VACANCY & DEMOLITION

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Demolition                                                                                  
Vacant GFA 5,293,942.23 5,717,708.27 5,950,776.09 6,344,275.2 6,877,807.24 7,331,166.22 7,833,413.52 8,374,028.1 8,795,960.5 9,296,483.27 9,530,865.25 9,545,269.3 9,607,617.06 9,119,113.01 8,724,211.01 8,335,591.5 7,905,168.16 7,414,931.21 6,880,673.73 6,309,444.98 5,688,483.89 5,993,802.5 6,319,434.86 6,555,753.89 6,796,753.06 7,040,013.47 7,285,926.25 7,536,544.72 7,791,753.47 8,052,019.17 8,315,392.5 8,517,890.83 8,720,416.94 8,922,915.28 9,125,441.39 9,327,913.61 9,538,051.67 9,748,190 9,958,305.69 10,168,445.97 10,277,461.94
GFA including vacancy 24,096,392.23 26,025,244.52 27,086,097.34 28,877,183.95 31,305,657.24 33,369,207.47 35,655,282.27 38,115,993.1 40,036,499.25 42,314,724.52 43,381,559 43,447,121.8 43,730,909.56 44,540,789.26 45,971,604.76 47,683,289 49,453,889.41 51,177,356.21 52,958,961.23 54,882,722.48 56,884,838.89 59,938,025 63,194,348.61 65,557,538.89 67,967,530.56 70,400,134.72 72,859,262.5 75,365,447.22 77,917,534.72 80,520,191.67 83,153,925 85,178,908.33 87,204,169.44 89,229,152.78 91,254,413.89 93,279,136.11 95,380,516.67 97,481,900 99,583,056.94 101,684,459.72 102,774,619.44
Vacancy rate (x1000) 219.7 219.7 219.7 219.7 219.7 219.7 219.7 219.7 219.7 219.7 219.7 219.7 219.7 204.74 189.77 174.81 159.85 144.89 129.92 114.96 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

SPACE REQUIREMENT

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GFA inc. AUM reserve 24,096,392.23 26,025,244.52 27,086,097.34 28,877,183.95 31,305,657.24 33,369,207.47 35,655,282.27 38,115,993.1 40,036,499.25 42,314,724.52 43,381,559 43,447,121.8 43,730,909.56 44,540,789.26 45,971,604.76 47,683,289 49,453,889.41 51,177,356.21 52,958,961.23 54,882,722.48 56,884,838.89 59,938,025 63,194,348.61 65,557,538.89 67,967,530.56 70,400,134.72 72,859,262.5 75,365,447.22 77,917,534.72 80,520,191.67 83,153,925 85,178,908.33 87,204,169.44 89,229,152.78 91,254,413.89 93,279,136.11 95,380,516.67 97,481,900 99,583,056.94 101,684,459.72 102,774,619.44
Acres inc. AUM reserve 2060.12 2225.03 2315.72 2468.85 2676.47 2852.9 3048.35 3258.72 3422.92 3617.69 3708.9 3714.51 3738.77 3808.01 3930.34 4076.68 4228.06 4375.4 4527.72 4692.19 4863.37 5124.4 5402.8 5604.84 5810.88 6018.85 6229.1 6443.36 6661.55 6884.07 7109.24 7282.36 7455.51 7628.64 7801.79 7974.89 8154.55 8334.21 8513.85 8693.51 8786.71

ANNUAL MARKET CHANGE

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GFA inc. AUM reserve 24,096,392.23 1,928,852.28 1,060,852.82 1,791,086.62 2,428,473.29 2,063,550.23 2,286,074.8 2,460,710.83 1,920,506.15 2,278,225.27 1,066,834.48 65562.8 283787.76 809879.7 1,430,815.51 1,711,684.23 1,770,600.42 1,723,466.8 1,781,605.02 1,923,761.25 2,002,116.41 3,053,186.11 3,256,323.61 2,363,190.28 2,409,991.67 2,432,604.17 2,459,127.78 2,506,184.72 2,552,087.5 2,602,656.94 2,633,733.33 2,024,983.33 2,025,261.11 2,024,983.33 2,025,261.11 2,024,722.22 2,101,380.56 2,101,383.33 2,101,156.94 2,101,402.78 1,090,159.72
Acres inc. AUM reserve 2060.12 164.91 90.7 153.13 207.62 176.42 195.45 210.38 164.19 194.78 91.21 5.61 24.26 69.24 122.33 146.34 151.38 147.35 152.32 164.47 171.17 261.03 278.4 202.04 206.04 207.98 210.24 214.27 218.19 222.51 225.17 173.13 173.15 173.13 173.15 173.1 179.66 179.66 179.64 179.66 93.2


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