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PBC Economic Model: Work in Process

Market for New Retail Space

(net added square feet means "supportable")

(this is not a measure of development activity, it is an estimate of potential) (PBC J)

RETAIL SALES

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Disposable Personal Income 10,947,635 12,004,621 12,229,944 13,332,291 14,391,954 15,885,180 16,892,044 18,041,568 19,014,798 20,240,348 20,551,558 20,395,818 20,675,656 21,568,571 22,755,860 24,187,075 25,502,843 26,876,392 28,363,522 30,030,901 31,892,195 33,944,876 36,233,410 37,880,845 39,585,394 41,349,597 43,195,028 45,122,958 47,138,464 49,133,662 51,220,243 52,729,944 54,253,462 55,790,932 57,342,385 58,907,958 60,536,134 62,179,120 63,836,986 65,509,912 66,543,391
Annual Change in Disp. PI 10,947,635 1,056,986 225323 1,102,347 1,059,663 1,493,226 1,006,864 1,149,524 973230 1,225,550 311210 -155740 279838 892915 1,187,289 1,431,215 1,315,768 1,373,549 1,487,130 1,667,379 1,861,294 2,052,681 2,288,534 1,647,435 1,704,549 1,764,203 1,845,431 1,927,930 2,015,506 1,995,198 2,086,581 1,509,701 1,523,518 1,537,470 1,551,453 1,565,573 1,628,176 1,642,986 1,657,866 1,672,926 1,033,479
Retail Sales 6,207,309 6,652,961 6,577,264 7,200,770 7,571,607 8,376,255 8,827,782 9,069,496 9,471,271 10,057,429 10,043,546 9,610,509 9,670,004 10,087,621 10,642,916 11,312,295 11,927,680 12,570,089 13,265,619 14,045,452 14,915,980 15,876,019 16,946,366 17,716,871 18,514,089 19,339,207 20,202,315 21,104,007 22,046,660 22,979,814 23,955,708 24,661,795 25,374,344 26,093,419 26,819,033 27,551,252 28,312,750 29,081,174 29,856,558 30,638,986 31,122,344
Annual Change in Ret.Sls. 6,207,309 445652 -75697 623506 370837 804648 451527 241714 401775 586158 -13883 -433037 59495 417616 555295 669379 615385 642409 695531 779833 870527 960039 1,070,347 770505 797218 825118 863108 901693 942652 933154 975894 706087 712549 719075 725615 732218 761498 768425 775384 782427 483358

CYCLICAL ADJUSTMENT

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Retail Sales (adjusted) 6,207,309 6,577,264 6,577,264 7,200,770 7,571,607 8,376,255 8,827,782 9,069,496 9,471,271 9,610,509 9,610,509 9,610,509 9,670,004 10,087,621 10,642,916 11,312,295 11,927,680 12,570,089 13,265,619 14,045,452 14,915,980 15,876,019 16,946,366 17,716,871 18,514,089 19,339,207 20,202,315 21,104,007 22,046,660 22,979,814 23,955,708 24,661,795 25,374,344 26,093,419 26,819,033 27,551,252 28,312,750 29,081,174 29,856,558 30,638,986 31,122,344
Ann. Change Ret.Sls(adj) 6,207,309 369955   623506 370837 804648 451527 241714 401775 139239     59495 417616 555295 669379 615385 642409 695531 779833 870527 960039 1,070,347 770505 797218 825118 863108 901693 942652 933154 975894 706087 712549 719075 725615 732218 761498 768425 775384 782427 483358

GFA REQUIRED

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Sales Per Square Foot 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160
Gross Floor Area (GFA) 38,684,135 40,989,704 40,989,704 44,875,415 47,186,480 52,201,073 55,015,001 56,521,370 59,025,242 59,892,981 59,892,981 59,892,981 60,263,755 62,866,352 66,326,967 70,498,559 74,333,655 78,337,166 82,671,734 87,531,677 92,956,829 98,939,820 105,610,256 110,412,069 115,380,352 120,522,510 125,901,426 131,520,802 137,395,439 143,210,883 149,292,683 153,693,039 158,133,668 162,614,963 167,137,015 171,700,222 176,445,900 181,234,744 186,066,960 190,943,071 193,955,374

VACANCY & DEMOLITION

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Demolition                                                                                  
Vacant GFA 6,851,124 7,259,450 7,259,450 7,947,626 8,356,925 9,245,031 9,743,389 10,010,174 10,453,620 10,607,300 10,607,300 10,607,300 10,672,966 10,056,022 9,505,022 8,962,041 8,280,295 7,527,929 6,714,167 5,841,142 4,892,465 5,207,359 5,558,435 5,811,162 6,072,650 6,343,290 6,626,391 6,922,147 7,231,339 7,537,415 7,857,510 8,089,107 8,322,825 8,558,682 8,796,685 9,036,854 9,286,626 9,538,671 9,792,998 10,049,635 10,208,178
GFA including Vacancy 45,535,259 48,249,154 48,249,154 52,823,041 55,543,405 61,446,104 64,758,391 66,531,544 69,478,862 70,500,281 70,500,281 70,500,281 70,936,720 72,922,374 75,831,989 79,460,600 82,613,950 85,865,095 89,385,901 93,372,819 97,849,293 104,147,179 111,168,691 116,223,230 121,453,002 126,865,800 132,527,817 138,442,950 144,626,778 150,748,298 157,150,193 161,782,146 166,456,493 171,173,645 175,933,700 180,737,076 185,732,526 190,773,415 195,859,958 200,992,707 204,163,551
Vacancy Rate (x1000) 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 138 125 113 100 88 75 63 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

SPACE REQUIREMENT

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GFA 45,535,259 48,249,154 48,249,154 52,823,041 55,543,405 61,446,104 64,758,391 66,531,544 69,478,862 70,500,281 70,500,281 70,500,281 70,936,720 72,922,374 75,831,989 79,460,600 82,613,950 85,865,095 89,385,901 93,372,819 97,849,293 104,147,179 111,168,691 116,223,230 121,453,002 126,865,800 132,527,817 138,442,950 144,626,778 150,748,298 157,150,193 161,782,146 166,456,493 171,173,645 175,933,700 180,737,076 185,732,526 190,773,415 195,859,958 200,992,707 204,163,551
Acres 4132 4378 4378 4793 5040 5575 5876 6037 6304 6397 6397 6397 6437 6617 6881 7210 7496 7791 8111 8472 8878 9450 10087 10546 11020 11511 12025 12562 13123 13678 14259 14679 15104 15532 15963 16399 16853 17310 17772 18237 18525

ANNUAL MARKET CHANGE

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GFA 45,535,259 2,713,896   4,573,887 2,720,364 5,902,698 3,312,287 1,773,153 2,947,318 1,021,419     436439 1,985,654 2,909,615 3,628,611 3,153,350 3,251,145 3,520,807 3,986,918 4,476,474 6,297,885 7,021,512 5,054,539 5,229,772 5,412,798 5,662,016 5,915,133 6,183,828 6,121,520 6,401,895 4,631,954 4,674,346 4,717,153 4,760,054 4,803,376 4,995,450 5,040,889 5,086,543 5,132,749 3,170,844
Acres 4132 246   415 247 536 301 161 267 93     40 180 264 329 286 295 319 362 406 571 637 459 475 491 514 537 561 555 581 420 424 428 432 436 453 457 462 466 288


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