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PBC Economic Model: Work in Process

Market for New Industrial Space

(net added square feet means "supportable")

(this is not a measure of development activity, it is an estimate of potential) (PBC L)

EMPLOYMENT

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jobs 54144.58 57595.26 58714.29 61899.7 69401.63 74385.41 76563.72 80480.42 84151.15 85259.42 84899.81 82512.98 81435.74 83874.13 88108.55 92816.57 97905.58 102614.24 107311.68 112278.83 117570.34 123134.29 129070.63 133300.8 137591.53 141915.46 146303.61 150772.89 155284.51 159837.05 164458.18 168462.84 172468.51 176473.17 180478.83 184483.53 188639.54 192795.64 196950.78 201106.73 203263.25
New jobs (ann. change) 54144.58 3450.69 1119.03 3185.41 7501.93 4983.78 2178.31 3916.69 3670.74 1108.27 -359.61 -2386.83 -1077.24 2438.39 4234.42 4708.01 5089.01 4708.66 4697.44 4967.15 5291.51 5563.95 5936.34 4230.17 4290.73 4323.93 4388.15 4469.28 4511.62 4552.54 4621.13 4004.66 4005.66 4004.66 4005.66 4004.7 4156.01 4156.1 4155.14 4155.95 2156.52

CYCLICAL ADJUSTMENT

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jobs affecting space 54144.58 57595.26 58714.29 61899.7 69401.63 74385.41 76563.72 80480.42 81435.74 81435.74 81435.74 81435.74 81435.74 83874.13 88108.55 92816.57 97905.58 102614.24 107311.68 112278.83 117570.34 123134.29 129070.63 133300.8 137591.53 141915.46 146303.61 150772.89 155284.51 159837.05 164458.18 168462.84 172468.51 176473.17 180478.83 184483.53 188639.54 192795.64 196950.78 201106.73 203263.25
Annual change 54144.58 3450.69 1119.03 3185.41 7501.93 4983.78 2178.31 3916.69 955.32         2438.39 4234.42 4708.01 5089.01 4708.66 4697.44 4967.15 5291.51 5563.95 5936.34 4230.17 4290.73 4323.93 4388.15 4469.28 4511.62 4552.54 4621.13 4004.66 4005.66 4004.66 4005.66 4004.7 4156.01 4156.1 4155.14 4155.95 2156.52

GFA REQUIRED

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Square Feet / Employee 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702 702
Gross floor area (GFA) 38,009,492.35 40,201,478.93 41,406,234.48 43,440,286.5 46,019,000.66 47,788,869.02 49,562,936.75 52,528,391.14 54,700,966.01 56,522,177.24 57,287,889.36 57,355,065.14 57,545,458.78 59,172,303.06 61,853,257.91 65,158,353.94 68,729,718.56 72,035,339.69 75,332,870.96 78,819,737.26 82,534,587.88 86,440,409.17 90,607,792.86 93,577,228.99 96,589,251.25 99,624,652.92 102,705,277.43 105,842,568.78 109,009,726.02 112,205,610.5 115,449,643.76 118,260,916.49 121,072,891.21 123,884,163.94 126,696,138.66 129,507,439.46 132,424,957.08 135,342,537.88 138,259,448.96 141,176,924.46 142,690,804.31

VACANCY & DEMOLITION

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Demolition                                                                                  
Vacant GFA 5,405,060.46 5,716,767.34 5,888,087.08 6,177,335.2 6,544,035.86 6,795,716.3 7,047,993.89 7,469,690.14 7,778,636.61 8,037,618.15 8,146,504.64 8,156,057.23 8,183,131.76 8,178,890.9 8,304,910.99 8,492,849.99 8,690,357.77 8,829,380.79 8,943,841.15 9,056,758.33 9,170,509.76 9,604,489.91 10,067,532.54 10,397,469.89 10,732,139.03 11,069,405.88 11,411,697.49 11,760,285.42 12,112,191.78 12,467,290.06 12,827,738.2 13,140,101.83 13,452,543.47 13,764,907.1 14,077,348.74 14,389,715.5 14,713,884.12 15,038,059.76 15,362,161 15,686,324.94 15,854,533.81
GFA including vacancy 43,414,552.82 45,918,246.26 47,294,321.56 49,617,621.7 52,563,036.53 54,584,585.32 56,610,930.64 59,998,081.27 62,479,602.62 64,559,795.39 65,434,394 65,511,122.38 65,728,590.54 67,351,193.96 70,158,168.9 73,651,203.93 77,420,076.34 80,864,720.48 84,276,712.11 87,876,495.59 91,705,097.64 96,044,899.08 100,675,325.4 103,974,698.88 107,321,390.28 110,694,058.8 114,116,974.92 117,602,854.2 121,121,917.8 124,672,900.56 128,277,381.96 131,401,018.32 134,525,434.68 137,649,071.04 140,773,487.4 143,897,154.96 147,138,841.2 150,380,597.64 153,621,609.96 156,863,249.4 158,545,338.12
Vacancy rate (x1000) 124.5 124.5 124.5 124.5 124.5 124.5 124.5 124.5 124.5 124.5 124.5 124.5 124.5 121.44 118.37 115.31 112.25 109.19 106.12 103.06 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

SPACE REQUIREMENT

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GFA inc. AUM reserve 43,414,552.82 45,918,246.26 47,294,321.56 49,617,621.7 52,563,036.53 54,584,585.32 56,610,930.64 59,998,081.27 62,479,602.62 64,559,795.39 65,434,394 65,511,122.38 65,728,590.54 67,351,193.96 70,158,168.9 73,651,203.93 77,420,076.34 80,864,720.48 84,276,712.11 87,876,495.59 91,705,097.64 96,044,899.08 100,675,325.4 103,974,698.88 107,321,390.28 110,694,058.8 114,116,974.92 117,602,854.2 121,121,917.8 124,672,900.56 128,277,381.96 131,401,018.32 134,525,434.68 137,649,071.04 140,773,487.4 143,897,154.96 147,138,841.2 150,380,597.64 153,621,609.96 156,863,249.4 158,545,338.12
Acres inc. AUM reserve 3490.39 3691.68 3802.31 3989.1 4225.9 4388.43 4551.34 4823.66 5023.16 5190.4 5260.72 5266.89 5284.37 5414.82 5640.49 5921.32 6224.33 6501.27 6775.58 7064.99 7372.8 7721.71 8093.98 8359.24 8628.3 8899.45 9174.64 9454.9 9737.82 10023.31 10313.1 10564.23 10815.42 11066.55 11317.74 11568.88 11829.5 12090.12 12350.69 12611.31 12746.54

ANNUAL MARKET CHANGE

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GFA inc. AUM reserve 43,414,552.82 2,503,693.45 1,376,075.3 2,323,300.14 2,945,414.83 2,021,548.79 2,026,345.32 3,387,150.63 2,481,521.34 2,080,192.78 874598.61 76728.38 217468.16 1,622,603.42 2,806,974.95 3,493,035.03 3,768,872.41 3,444,644.14 3,411,991.63 3,599,783.48 3,828,602.05 4,339,801.44 4,630,426.32 3,299,373.48 3,346,691.4 3,372,668.52 3,422,916.12 3,485,879.28 3,519,063.6 3,550,982.76 3,604,481.4 3,123,636.36 3,124,416.36 3,123,636.36 3,124,416.36 3,123,667.56 3,241,686.24 3,241,756.44 3,241,012.32 3,241,639.44 1,682,088.72
Acres inc. AUM reserve 3490.39 201.29 110.63 186.79 236.8 162.53 162.91 272.32 199.51 167.24 70.31 6.17 17.48 130.45 225.67 280.83 303.01 276.94 274.31 289.41 307.81 348.91 372.27 265.26 269.06 271.15 275.19 280.25 282.92 285.49 289.79 251.13 251.19 251.13 251.19 251.13 260.62 260.63 260.57 260.62 135.23



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