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S/W with 15 Year Transformation

Market for New Retail Space

(net added square feet means "supportable")

(this is not a measure of development activity, it is an estimate of potential)

RETAIL SALES

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Disposable Personal Income 78263 77183 76053 74948 73843 72806 71561 70502 69348 68266 67137 72806 73559 76005 77064 78452 80192 82098 88920 94260 101011 105833 110656 115760 121171 126911 130016 133262 136485 139778 142789 141895 142319 142107 141778 141425 140413 139496 138390 137590 136744
Annual Change in Disp. PI 78263 -1080 -1130 -1105 -1105 -1037 -1245 -1059 -1154 -1082 -1129 5669 753 2446 1059 1388 1740 1906 6822 5340 6751 4822 4823 5104 5411 5740 3105 3246 3223 3293 3011 -894 424 -212 -329 -353 -1012 -917 -1106 -800 -846
Retail Sales 44375 42775 40901 40479 38849 38391 37398 35441 34542 33921 32810 34306 34404 35548 36043 36692 37506 38397 41588 44085 47243 49498 51754 54141 56672 59356 60808 62327 63834 65374 66782 66364 66563 66463 66310 66144 65671 65242 64725 64351 63955
Annual Change in Ret.Sls. 44375 -1600 -1874 -422 -1631 -458 -993 -1956 -899 -621 -1112 1496 97 1144 495 649 814 891 3191 2498 3157 2255 2256 2387 2531 2685 1452 1518 1507 1540 1408 -418 198 -99 -154 -165 -473 -429 -517 -374 -396

CYCLICAL ADJUSTMENT

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Retail Sales (adjusted) 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 47243 49498 51754 54141 56672 59356 60808 62327 63834 63955 63955 63955 63955 63955 63955 63955 63955 63955 63955 63955 63955
Ann. Change Ret.Sls(adj) 44375                                       2868 2255 2256 2387 2531 2685 1452 1518 1507 121                      

GFA REQUIRED

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Sales Per Square Foot 300 288 286 289 291 294 299 302 303 301 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300
Gross Floor Area (GFA) 147980 153936 154935 153331 152440 150958 148321 146762 146508 147182 147917 147917 147917 147917 147917 147917 147917 147917 147917 147917 157476 164994 172513 180470 188906 197854 202695 207755 212780 213184 213184 213184 213184 213184 213184 213184 213184 213184 213184 213184 213184

VACANCY & DEMOLITION

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Demolition                                                                                  
Vacant GFA 7788 8102 8154 8070 8023 7945 7806 7724 7711 7746 7785 7785 7785 7785 7785 7785 7785 7785 7785 7785 8288 8684 9080 9498 9942 10413 10668 10934 11199 11220 11220 11220 11220 11220 11220 11220 11220 11220 11220 11220 11220
GFA including Vacancy 155769 162037 163089 161401 160463 158903 156127 154486 154219 154929 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 165764 173678 181592 189968 198848 208268 213363 218690 223979 224404 224404 224404 224404 224404 224404 224404 224404 224404 224404 224404 224404
Vacancy Rate (x1000) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

SPACE REQUIREMENT

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GFA 155769 162037 163089 161401 160463 158903 156127 154486 154219 154929 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 165764 173678 181592 189968 198848 208268 213363 218690 223979 224404 224404 224404 224404 224404 224404 224404 224404 224404 224404 224404 224404
Acres 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 18 19 20 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

ANNUAL MARKET CHANGE

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GFA 155769 6269 1052 -1688 -938 -1560 -2776 -1641 -267 710 773                   10062 7913 7915 8376 8880 9420 5095 5327 5289 425                      
Acres 16 1                                     1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1                        


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