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S/W with 5 Year Transformation

Market for New Retail Space

(net added square feet means "supportable")

(this is not a measure of development activity, it is an estimate of potential)

RETAIL SALES

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Disposable Personal Income 78263 77183 76053 74948 73843 72806 71561 70502 69348 68266 67137 72806 73559 76005 77064 78475 80192 82121 88873 94307 101011 101529 101999 102634 103434 104234 104093 103810 103787 103646 103152 102493 102775 102658 102422 102140 101529 100799 100023 99270 98753
Annual Change in Disp. PI 78263 -1080 -1130 -1105 -1105 -1037 -1245 -1059 -1154 -1082 -1129 5669 753 2446 1059 1411 1717 1929 6752 5434 6704 518 470 635 800 800 -141 -283 -23 -141 -494 -659 282 -117 -236 -282 -611 -730 -776 -753 -517
Retail Sales 44375 42775 40901 40479 38849 38391 37398 35441 34542 33921 32810 34306 34404 35548 36043 36703 37506 38408 41566 44107 47243 47485 47705 48002 48376 48750 48684 48552 48541 48475 48244 47936 48068 48013 47903 47771 47485 47144 46781 46429 46187
Annual Change in Ret.Sls. 44375 -1600 -1874 -422 -1631 -458 -993 -1956 -899 -621 -1112 1496 97 1144 495 660 803 902 3158 2541 3135 242 220 297 374 374 -66 -132 -11 -66 -231 -308 132 -55 -110 -132 -286 -341 -363 -352 -242

CYCLICAL ADJUSTMENT

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Retail Sales (adjusted) 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 44375 46187 46187 46187 46187 46187 46187 46187 46187 46187 46187 46187 46187 46187 46187 46187 46187 46187 46187 46187 46187 46187
Ann. Change Ret.Sls(adj) 44375                                       1812                                        

GFA REQUIRED

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Sales Per Square Foot 300 288 286 289 291 294 299 302 303 301 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300
Gross Floor Area (GFA) 147980 153936 154935 153331 152440 150958 148321 146762 146508 147182 147917 147917 147917 147917 147917 147917 147917 147917 147917 147917 153956 153956 153956 153956 153956 153956 153956 153956 153956 153956 153956 153956 153956 153956 153956 153956 153956 153956 153956 153956 153956

VACANCY & DEMOLITION

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Demolition                                                                                  
Vacant GFA 7788 8102 8154 8070 8023 7945 7806 7724 7711 7746 7785 7785 7785 7785 7785 7785 7785 7785 7785 7785 8103 8103 8103 8103 8103 8103 8103 8103 8103 8103 8103 8103 8103 8103 8103 8103 8103 8103 8103 8103 8103
GFA including Vacancy 155769 162037 163089 161401 160463 158903 156127 154486 154219 154929 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059
Vacancy Rate (x1000) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

SPACE REQUIREMENT

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GFA 155769 162037 163089 161401 160463 158903 156127 154486 154219 154929 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 155702 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059 162059
Acres 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

ANNUAL MARKET CHANGE

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GFA 155769 6269 1052 -1688 -938 -1560 -2776 -1641 -267 710 773                   6357                                        
Acres 16 1                                     1                                        


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