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S/W if Birth Rates Achieved, not Employment Goals

Market for New Retail Space

(net added square feet means "supportable")

(this is not a measure of development activity, it is an estimate of potential)

RETAIL SALES

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Disposable Personal Income 78263 77183 76053 74948 73843 72806 71561 70502 69348 68266 67137 71536 71136 72265 72124 72265 72618 73182 77887 81298 85697 86238 86638 87155 87791 88614 88426 88191 88096 87932 87697 87155 87344 87226 87014 86826 86238 85603 84968 84427 83839
Annual Change in Disp. PI 78263 -1080 -1130 -1105 -1105 -1037 -1245 -1059 -1154 -1082 -1129 4399 -400 1129 -141 141 353 564 4705 3411 4399 541 400 517 636 823 -188 -235 -95 -164 -235 -542 189 -118 -212 -188 -588 -635 -635 -541 -588
Retail Sales 44375 42775 40901 40479 38849 38391 37398 35441 34542 33921 32810 33708 33270 33798 33732 33798 33963 34227 36428 38023 40080 40334 40521 40762 41060 41445 41357 41247 41202 41126 41016 40762 40851 40796 40696 40609 40334 40037 39740 39487 39212
Annual Change in Ret.Sls. 44375 -1600 -1874 -422 -1631 -458 -993 -1956 -899 -621 -1112 898 -437 528 -66 66 165 264 2201 1595 2057 253 187 242 297 385 -88 -110 -44 -77 -110 -253 88 -55 -99 -88 -275 -297 -297 -253 -275

CYCLICAL ADJUSTMENT

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Retail Sales (adjusted) 44375 42775 41445 41445 41445 41445 41445 41445 41445 41445 41445 41445 41445 41445 41445 41445 41445 41445 41445 41445 41445 41445 41445 41445 41445 41445 41357 41247 41202 41126 41016 40851 40851 40796 40696 40609 40334 40037 39740 39487 39212
Ann. Change Ret.Sls(adj) 44375 -1600 -1330                                               -88 -110 -44 -77 -110 -165   -55 -99 -88 -275 -297 -297 -253 -275

GFA REQUIRED

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Sales Per Square Foot 300 288 286 289 291 294 299 302 303 301 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300
Gross Floor Area (GFA) 147980 148384 144703 143206 142373 140989 138526 137070 136833 137463 138149 138149 138149 138149 138149 138149 138149 138149 138149 138149 138149 138149 138149 138149 138149 138149 137856 137490 137342 137086 136720 136169 136169 135985 135655 135362 134445 133455 132465 131622 130705

VACANCY & DEMOLITION

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Demolition                                                                                  
Vacant GFA 7788 7810 7616 7537 7493 7420 7291 7214 7202 7235 7271 7271 7271 7271 7271 7271 7271 7271 7271 7271 7271 7271 7271 7271 7271 7271 7256 7236 7229 7215 7196 7167 7167 7157 7140 7124 7076 7024 6972 6927 6879
GFA including Vacancy 155769 156194 152319 150743 149867 148410 145817 144285 144035 144698 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145112 144726 144570 144301 143915 143336 143336 143142 142795 142486 141521 140479 139437 138549 137584
Vacancy Rate (x1000) 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

SPACE REQUIREMENT

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GFA 155769 156194 152319 150743 149867 148410 145817 144285 144035 144698 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145420 145112 144726 144570 144301 143915 143336 143336 143142 142795 142486 141521 140479 139437 138549 137584
Acres 16 16 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14

ANNUAL MARKET CHANGE

  1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GFA 155769 425 -3875 -1576 -876 -1457 -2593 -1533 -250 663 722                               -309 -386 -156 -269 -386 -579   -194 -348 -309 -965 -1042 -1042 -888 -965
Acres 16                                                                                


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